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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 62

Carolina Panthers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(5:31) (Punt formation) 34-S.Chandler up the middle to CAR 40 for 2 yards (53-J.Cooper; 54-J.Martin).

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.32 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 62, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model