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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 67

Denver Broncos 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 17-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to CAR 19, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear to CAR 28 for 9 yards (20-D.Phillips; 6-P.Locke).

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP