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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 9

Denver Broncos 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 8-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP