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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 96

Denver Broncos 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 17-C.Waitman punts 58 yards to CAR 38, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear to DEN 41 for 21 yards (49-A.Singleton; 6-P.Locke).

The Three Options

GO -3.94 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.07 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 96, worth -6.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -3.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 53, worth -3.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model