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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 82

Denver Broncos 3 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 17-C.Waitman punts 57 yards to CAR 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-15-J.Virgil.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.73 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 40, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP