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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 24

Carolina Panthers 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.62 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model