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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2022-11-13 · 20:20 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

LAC
34.5%
SF
65.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF on 7 more days rest than LAC
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.139 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.011 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 21
–
SF 26
Projected margin: SF by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

LAC

Keenan Allen WR Out Hamstring
Dustin Hopkins K Out right Hamstring
Mike Williams WR Out Ankle
Chris Rumph LB Doubtful Knee
Trey Pipkins T Questionable Knee
Brenden Jaimes G Questionable Shoulder

SF

Arik Armstead DT Out Foot
Jason Verrett CB Out Knee
Samson Ebukam DE Doubtful Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 16
–
SF 22

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:42 TD LAC (11:42) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-D.Carter for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC LAC 6 – SF 0
  • Q1 04:12 FG SF (4:12) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. LAC 7 – SF 3
  • Q2 14:56 FG LAC (14:56) 15-C.Dicker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 10 – SF 3
  • Q2 06:45 FG LAC (6:45) 15-C.Dicker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 13 – SF 3
  • Q2 02:00 TD SF (2:00) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – SF 9
  • Q2 00:03 FG LAC (:03) 15-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 16 – SF 10
  • Q3 08:55 FG SF (8:55) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. LAC 16 – SF 13
  • Q4 08:00 TD SF (8:00) (No Huddle) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-69-S.Joseph, Defensive Offside, declined. LAC 16 – SF 19
  • Q4 01:01 FG SF (1:01) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. LAC 16 – SF 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

    (4:12) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 32%

    (:52) 16-J.Scott punts 32 yards to SF 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 80%

    (14:56) 15-C.Dicker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:40) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to LAC 30, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:19) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to SF 24, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (10:36) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 13 yards to SF 46, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-30-G.Odum. LAC-31-N.Niemann deflected punt.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (6:45) 15-C.Dicker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 11 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 90%

    (:03) 15-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 78%

    (12:03) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle to LAC 29 for 1 yard (95-C.Covington; 49-D.Tranquill).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (8:55) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 44%

    (6:37) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:46) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to LAC 21, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (15:00) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to SF 23, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:48) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to SF 30, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 41 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 52%

    (2:12) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to LAC 1, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-26-S.Womack.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 92 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (1:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Palmer [75-J.Willis].

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

    (1:01) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.