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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 13 yards to SF 46, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-30-G.Odum. LAC-31-N.Niemann deflected punt.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.93 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP