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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 7

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 15-C.Dicker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.48 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model