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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 30

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle to LAC 29 for 1 yard (95-C.Covington; 49-D.Tranquill).

The Three Options

GO +2.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.16 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model