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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 29

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 15-C.Dicker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.26 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model