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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 49

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(:52) 16-J.Scott punts 32 yards to SF 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.74 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP