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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 44

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.58 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model