Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 72

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – San Francisco 49ers 19

(6:48) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to SF 30, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model