Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – San Francisco 49ers 3

(12:19) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to SF 24, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model