Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 63

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – San Francisco 49ers 13

(15:00) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to SF 23, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.03 EP
54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model