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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Sunday 2022-11-06 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

SEA
52.6%
ARI
47.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Kyler Murray (ARI): -0.074 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ARI defense: +0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 24
–
ARI 23
Projected margin: SEA by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

SEA

Marquise Goodwin WR Out Groin
Darrell Taylor LB Out Groin
Joey Blount S Questionable Quadricep
Penny Hart WR Questionable Hamstring

ARI

Max Garcia G Out Shoulder
Rodney Hudson C Out Knee
Christian Matthew CB Out Hamstring
Andy Lee P Questionable Illness
Jonathan Ledbetter DE Questionable Ribs
Budda Baker S Questionable Ankle
James Conner RB Questionable Ribs
Dennis Gardeck LB Questionable Ankle
D.J. Humphries T Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 31
–
ARI 21

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:55 FG SEA (10:55) 5-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – ARI 0
  • Q1 06:25 TD ARI (6:25) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – ARI 6
  • Q2 12:04 TD SEA (12:04) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – ARI 7
  • Q3 09:26 TD ARI (9:26) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 9-K.Walker INTERCEPTED by 25-Z.Collins at SEA 30. 25-Z.Collins for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 10 – ARI 13
  • Q3 02:48 TD SEA (2:48) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 16-T.Lockett for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – ARI 14
  • Q4 07:35 TD SEA (7:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 23 – ARI 14
  • Q4 03:35 TD ARI (3:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 24 – ARI 20
  • Q4 02:20 TD SEA (2:20) 9-K.Walker right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 30 – ARI 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 78%

    (10:55) 5-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to ARI 20, Center-46-C.Tinker. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 20 for no gain (83-D.Young).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:22) 14-A.Lee punts 65 yards to SEA 21, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-33-A.Hamilton.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:36) 14-A.Lee punts 54 yards to SEA 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 46 for 19 yards (56-B.Niemann, 47-E.Turner). PENALTY on ARI-31-C.Banjo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 46.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 67%

    (6:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 84-C.Parkinson to ARI 40 for -4 yards (94-Z.Allen).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:54) 14-A.Lee punts 33 yards to SEA 21, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (3:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to ARI 3, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by SEA-19-P.Hart.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 57%

    (:25) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles up the middle to SEA 31 for 9 yards (26-R.Neal). FUMBLES (26-R.Neal), touched at SEA 21, RECOVERED by SEA-13-J.Jones at SEA 23.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:32) 14-A.Lee punts 45 yards to SEA 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 27 for 4 yards (33-A.Hamilton).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 14 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:26) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to ARI 24, Center-46-C.Tinker. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 31 for 7 yards (58-T.Muse). SEA-41-C.Gillaspia was injured during the play.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 19 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (14:29) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to SEA 16, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas MUFFS catch, and recovers at SEA 19.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 15 at the 79 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:05) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep middle to 86-Z.Ertz (56-J.Brooks).