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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 31

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 5-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.14 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model