Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 81

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 14-A.Lee punts 54 yards to SEA 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 46 for 19 yards (56-B.Niemann, 47-E.Turner). PENALTY on ARI-31-C.Banjo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 46.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.85 EP
66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 81, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model