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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 58

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to ARI 3, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by SEA-19-P.Hart.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.79 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP