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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 40

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(:25) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles up the middle to SEA 31 for 9 yards (26-R.Neal). FUMBLES (26-R.Neal), touched at SEA 21, RECOVERED by SEA-13-J.Jones at SEA 23.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.56 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model