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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 54

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 14-A.Lee punts 33 yards to SEA 21, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.79 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 54, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model