Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 86

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 3

(3:22) 14-A.Lee punts 65 yards to SEA 21, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-33-A.Hamilton.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.93 EP
69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 86, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model