Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 19 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Seattle Seahawks 17

(14:29) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to SEA 16, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas MUFFS catch, and recovers at SEA 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.91 EP
74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model