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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 68

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 14-A.Lee punts 45 yards to SEA 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 27 for 4 yards (33-A.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.20 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model