Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 79

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Seattle Seahawks 31

(1:05) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep middle to 86-Z.Ertz (56-J.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.92 EP
69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 79, worth -1.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.31 EP