4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
LV Away

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2022-11-06 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

LV
43.4%
JAX
56.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • JAX offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 22
–
JAX 24
Projected margin: JAX by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

LV

Divine Deablo LB Questionable Back
Neil Farrell DT Questionable Knee
Darren Waller TE Questionable Hamstring

JAX

Jamal Agnew WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 20
–
JAX 27

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:51 TD LV (4:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – JAX 0
  • Q2 14:12 FG LV (14:12) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 10 – JAX 0
  • Q2 11:00 TD LV (11:00) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 16 – JAX 0
  • Q2 04:56 TD JAX (4:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 17 – JAX 6
  • Q2 00:50 FG LV (:50) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 20 – JAX 7
  • Q2 00:03 FG JAX (:03) 10-R.Patterson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. LV 20 – JAX 10
  • Q3 10:20 TD JAX (10:20) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 20 – JAX 16
  • Q4 15:00 TD JAX (15:00) 1-T.Etienne right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 20 – JAX 23
  • Q4 01:08 FG JAX (1:08) 10-R.Patterson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. LV 20 – JAX 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:44) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to JAX 17, Center-47-T.Sieg. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 30 for 13 yards (45-J.Johnson).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 43%

    (6:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to JAX 31 for 11 yards (2-R.Jenkins).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (3:17) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to LV 28, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 45 for 17 yards (57-C.Johnson).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 91%

    (14:12) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:45) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to LV 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 21 for 5 yards (48-C.Muma). PENALTY on JAX-57-C.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 21.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 90%

    (:50) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:10) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to JAX 18, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 35%

    (10:04) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to JAX 9, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (7:41) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to LV 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 27 for 7 yards (89-L.Farrell).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 12 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:30) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to JAX 15, Center-47-T.Sieg. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 18 for 3 yards (34-B.Bolden).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 86%

    (3:08) 10-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. LV-99-C.Ferrell was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (2:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 74%

    (1:08) 10-R.Patterson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 17 at the 82 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-B.Bolden left end to LV 23 for 5 yards. Lateral to 87-F.Moreau to LV 28 for 5 yards (37-T.Herndon). FUMBLES (37-T.Herndon), RECOVERED by JAX-33-D.Lloyd at LV 25. 33-D.Lloyd to LV 14 for 11 yards (66-D.Parham).