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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 75

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to JAX 15, Center-47-T.Sieg. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 18 for 3 yards (34-B.Bolden).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.72 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model