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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 45

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to JAX 9, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.60 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model