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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to LV 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 27 for 7 yards (89-L.Farrell).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.48 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP