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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 30

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 10-R.Patterson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +1.68 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model