Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to LV 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 21 for 5 yards (48-C.Muma). PENALTY on JAX-57-C.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 21.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.10 EP
48% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model