4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(6:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to JAX 31 for 11 yards (2-R.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.15 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model