Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

(7:10) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to JAX 18, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.69 EP
67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 60, worth -3.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model