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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 23

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 10-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. LV-99-C.Ferrell was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +2.55 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +0.93 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 33, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -1.16 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP