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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(2:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.29 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 61, worth -1.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 20, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model