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Indianapolis Colts

3-5-1 HC Frank Reich
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New England Patriots

5-4 HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2022-11-06 · 13:00 ET Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

IND
32.3%
NE
67.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NE offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Mac Jones (NE): +0.095 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

IND 17 10–24
–
NE 24 17–31
Projected margin: NE by 7 Projected total: 41

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 9

IND

Tony Brown CB Out Hamstring
Matt Ryan QB Out right Shoulder
Grant Stuard LB Out Pectoral
Jonathan Taylor RB Out Ankle
E.J. Speed LB Questionable Ankle
Dennis Kelly T Questionable Calf

NE

David Andrews C Out Concussion
Marcus Cannon T Out Concussion
DeVante Parker WR Out Knee
Jack Jones CB Questionable Illness
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Ankle
Damien Harris RB Questionable Illness
Pierre Strong RB Questionable Hamstring
Josh Uche LB Questionable Hamstring
Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 3
–
NE 26

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:35 FG NE (13:35) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. IND 0 – NE 3
  • Q2 08:55 FG NE (8:55) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. IND 0 – NE 6
  • Q2 06:18 TD NE (6:18) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – NE 12
  • Q3 08:04 FG IND (8:04) 7-C.McLaughlin 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. IND 3 – NE 13
  • Q3 04:22 FG NE (4:22) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. IND 3 – NE 16
  • Q4 10:13 FG NE (10:13) 6-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. IND 3 – NE 19
  • Q4 04:07 TD NE (4:07) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short left intended for 83-K.Granson INTERCEPTED by 31-Jo.Jones at IND 17. 31-Jo.Jones for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 3 – NE 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:24) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to IND 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-K.Coutee to IND 31 for 12 yards (8-J.Bentley).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 24%

    (11:32) 6-M.Haack punts 41 yards to NE 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NE 4th & 13 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:43) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to NE 42, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 16 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 29%

    (7:39) 6-M.Haack punts 29 yards to NE 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NE 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:31) 7-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to IND 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-K.Coutee pushed ob at IND 24 for 6 yards (41-B.Schooler, 97-D.Mitchell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:25) 6-M.Haack punts 49 yards to NE 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 25-Ma.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 73%

    (13:35) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:03) 6-M.Haack punts 38 yards to NE 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-Ma.Jones to IND 43 for 23 yards (33-D.Flowers; 20-N.Cross).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 85%

    (8:55) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:05) 6-M.Haack punt is BLOCKED by 31-Jo.Jones, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by NE-41-B.Schooler at IND 8. 41-B.Schooler to IND 2 for 6 yards (6-M.Haack).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 17 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (3:26) 6-M.Haack punts 45 yards to NE 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 25-Ma.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:45) 7-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to IND 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-K.Coutee to IND 30 for 8 yards (30-M.Wilson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%

    (:21) 7-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:34) 6-M.Haack punts 40 yards to NE 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-33-D.Flowers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 16 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 88%

    (8:04) 7-C.McLaughlin 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 84%

    (4:22) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:54) 6-M.Haack punts 54 yards to NE 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 22 for 7 yards (46-L.Rhodes).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:51) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to IND 36, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (15:00) 35-D.Jackson right end to IND 45 for no gain (9-M.Judon).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (10:13) 6-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:41) 6-M.Haack punts 52 yards to NE 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 32 for 4 yards (45-E.Speed).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 22%

    (5:19) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to IND 7, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-K.Coutee to IND 11 for 4 yards (41-B.Schooler, 18-M.Slater).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 29%

    (2:46) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass incomplete deep right to 1-P.Campbell (27-M.Bryant).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 31%

    (:36) 7-J.Bailey punts 7 yards to IND 40, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →