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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 3 – New England Patriots 19

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 6-M.Haack punts 52 yards to NE 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 32 for 4 yards (45-E.Speed).

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.59 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model