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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 94

New England Patriots 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to NE 42, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.30 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.99 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 94, worth -5.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 52, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model