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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 65

New England Patriots 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 7-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to IND 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-K.Coutee pushed ob at IND 24 for 6 yards (41-B.Schooler, 97-D.Mitchell).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 65, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 23, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model