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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 24

New England Patriots 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.56 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP