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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 76

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 6-M.Haack punts 49 yards to NE 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 25-Ma.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.33 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 76, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 34, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model