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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 6-M.Haack punts 38 yards to NE 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-Ma.Jones to IND 43 for 23 yards (33-D.Flowers; 20-N.Cross).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model