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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 69

Indianapolis Colts 3 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(2:54) 6-M.Haack punts 54 yards to NE 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 22 for 7 yards (46-L.Rhodes).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.47 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 27, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model