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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 47

New England Patriots 26 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(:36) 7-J.Bailey punts 7 yards to IND 40, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.37 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model