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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 25

New England Patriots 13 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.58 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 35, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model