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Denver Broncos

HC Nathaniel Hackett
@
LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Monday 2022-10-17 · 20:15 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

DEN
38.1%
LAC
61.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Justin Herbert (LAC): +0.171 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DEN on 3 more days rest than LAC

Predicted Final Score

DEN 22
–
LAC 25
Projected margin: LAC by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

DEN

Josey Jewell LB Out Knee
Caden Sterns S Out Hip
Quinn Meinerz G Questionable Hamstring
Jonathon Cooper LB Questionable Hamstring
Melvin Gordon RB Questionable Neck
Damarri Mathis CB Questionable Knee
Dalton Risner G Questionable Back
Eric Saubert TE Questionable Thigh
Billy Turner T Questionable Knee

LAC

Keenan Allen WR Doubtful Hamstring
Corey Linsley C Questionable Illness
Trey Pipkins T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 16
–
LAC 19

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:25 FG DEN (7:25) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman. DEN 3 – LAC 0
  • Q1 01:57 TD DEN (1:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 80-G.Dulcich for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – LAC 0
  • Q2 09:16 TD LAC (9:16) (No Huddle) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – LAC 6
  • Q2 00:57 FG LAC (:57) 6-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. DEN 10 – LAC 10
  • Q2 00:05 FG DEN (:05) 8-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman. DEN 13 – LAC 10
  • Q3 09:12 FG LAC (9:12) 6-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. DEN 13 – LAC 13
  • Q4 08:26 FG DEN (8:26) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman. DEN 16 – LAC 13
  • Q4 04:02 FG LAC (4:02) 6-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. DEN 16 – LAC 16
  • Q5 02:43 FG LAC (2:43) 6-D.Hopkins 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. DEN 16 – LAC 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 67%

    (14:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 83-M.Bandy to DEN 33 for 4 yards (49-A.Singleton).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 16 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 62%

    (12:39) 16-J.Scott punts 18 yards to DEN 21, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 75%

    (7:25) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (5:42) 16-J.Scott punts 52 yards to DEN 14, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-M.Washington MUFFS catch, touched at DEN 15, and recovers at DEN 16.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:37) 17-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to LAC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 17 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%

    (:57) 6-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (:05) 8-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:39) 17-C.Waitman punts 58 yards to LAC 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 1-D.Carter to LAC 28 for 19 yards (48-M.Fraboni).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 96%

    (9:12) 6-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 20 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (5:22) 17-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to LAC 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 1-D.Carter to LAC 30 for 9 yards (16-T.Cleveland).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 82%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 1-D.Carter (27-D.Mathis).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 62%

    (10:49) 17-C.Waitman punts 22 yards to LAC 17, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 80%

    (8:26) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 12 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

    (4:02) 6-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:00) 17-C.Waitman punts 41 yards to LAC 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-48-M.Fraboni.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right (27-D.Mathis).