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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 39

Denver Broncos 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 17-C.Waitman punts 22 yards to LAC 17, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.80 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.07 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP