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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 66

Denver Broncos 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 17-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to LAC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.87 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model