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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 29

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 1-D.Carter (27-D.Mathis).

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.28 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model